Amazon Announcement

Amazon just announced some new products if you haven't see it all over the web yet.

They reduced the price of the Kindle and introduced a new touch version. The catch...all the new models are ad supported. I'm not a fan of that but it helps keep the price down that's for sure.

The big new thing, though, is the Kindle Fire, a new tablet at a killer price. Only $200. This will be a market changer. While it won't have the robust app store that Apple has it will have access to the android app store which has all of the more popular apps. Also they're introducing a new type of web browsing which splits the processing needed to load web pages into part on the device and part on Amazon's servers. The result will be much faster web browsing. Not a bad day for tech nerds. Now here's looking forward to 10/4 when Apple has it's conference.

The Future of Consumer Technology (5 years)

**Links in text are articles that I base info off of.  They are not promotional links put in there to harass you.**

The future of consumer technology is a hard thing to guess at.  All we can do is look for trends.  We can look back in time and see where we were and then extrapolate into the future.  Needless to say, it’s all guesswork.  Educated guesswork.  So throughout these posts I could insert “in my opinion” over and over again, or you could just read the post with that in mind.  So I will state things as if they were fact but everything below (unless cited from a source) is speculation on my part. 

That being said here’s where I predict we will be in 5 years.

The short term future of technology hinges on the cloud.  More specifically the average consumer’s ability to efficiently access that cloud.  Cloud is one of those terms that has been thrown around a lot recently and in order to ensure everyone is on the same page I’m going to take a moment to explain the cloud.  The cloud is, broken down simply, the internet.  More specifically it’s the space that is created on the internet where things can be stored and programs can be run.  While the internet might seem like some ethereal, anomalous gathering of data that just floats out there in “cyberspace” it is actually all stored somewhere in the world in a physical place (or rather multiple physical places).  When people refer to the cloud the are actually talking about massive warehouses full of servers that store data and make it available from anywhere in the world via the internet.  I won’t get into the pro’s and con’s of the cloud but, needless to say, the world is shifting more and more to cloud computing as the speed of internet access increases.  As we continue to see the speed of our internet increase it will become more and more practical for us to store programs and data in the cloud.  In the beginning of this year a study was done that compared internet speeds around the world.  While the US was in the top 25, it wasn’t even close to the top.  Japan holds that title with internet download speeds averaging at 61mbps.  To give you a comparison the average US speed was 4.8 mbps.  Compare a car going 5 mph with a car going 60 mph and you’ll see the difference.  Many people foresee gigabit internet speeds in the future.  It’s hard to say when, due to the economy and the massive amount of spending the US government is already dealing with, but we will get there, eventually.  I think in 5 years we, in the US, will see speeds closer to the mid 20’s.  There may be options for higher speeds but I think the average household can expect those speeds. 

Once we become more dependent on the cloud we’ll see a drop in the need for hard drives as everything is stored on the cloud.  We’ll see cell phone internet speeds close to 15-20 mbps and we’ll see the proliferation of “smart phones” with access to that internet.  I see in 5 years a possibility of desktops for home use starting to disappear.  We will no longer need the big towers to hold our processing power or storage.  We’ll start to see ways in which we can connect our cell phones to monitors and use the cell phone’s processing power to run the programs in the cloud (this will become more and more affordable and accessible in the 10-15 year range).  We’ll see a shift to tablets and small laptops to supplement our cell phones, which will fast become even more of an inseparable part of our lives.  We’ll be able to wirelessly pay for our groceries and other purchases by simply taping our cell phone against receivers at the point of sale.  For those who can afford it our homes will be able to be controlled completely through our cell phones, from unlocking the door (this exists now) to turning on the oven, A/C, lights etc.    We’ll see location based operations that will open your garage door automatically (update: (9/28) you can do this now too.) when you drive within 200 yards, or it will detect when you leave the house and adjust the energy usage accordingly.  All of this, of course, will be optional, costly, upgrades or apps and won’t be compulsory or cheap to begin with.

Once home internet speeds reach faster speeds we’ll see the death of cable TV.  Not because of Netflix or Hulu, but rather by companies like Time Warner (or a new upstart) who will simply change the method in which channels are distributed.  With this we’ll see social connectivity (good and bad) that will allow for targeted advertisements on TV similar to what you see on Facebook and other websites.   And with that scary thought I think I’ll wrap this up.  I may add more if I come up with things but this is long enough as it is.  Feel free to add input in the comments…

Visionary

With the resignation of Steve Jobs from the position of CEO at Apple the company, and by extension consumers, lose a true visionary.  I’m not exaggerating.  If you don’t believe me go on YouTube and look at some of the videos of lectures he gave upon his return to Apple in the 90’s.  One in particular that I was watching last night in preparation for a computer class I teach, showed a younger and more healthy looking Jobs discussing his view of the future of computing.  In it he talks about being able to save a document at his work computer and have instant access to that document at home or wherever else he is.  He goes on to describe a world in which the internet has become fast enough for us to store information on servers and access them as quickly, or eventually even faster, then we can if we stored them locally.  Sound familiar? We’re there or at least very close.  As companies shift more and more to the cloud they are doing exactly what Job’s foretold over a decade ago.  Another, smaller, example of his foresight is in something as small as the naming of the iPad.  When it was first announced the name was criticized everywhere for bringing to mind images of female hygiene products.  Now…well now even if you leave of the “i” and simply refer to something as a pad most people’s first thought will likely go to a tablet computer rather than feminine products.  He knew that iPad was the right name and he stuck to his guns. 

Why do I go on about Steve Jobs?  Well I was wondering where technology was going the other day and started to brainstorm.  While I’m no Steve Jobs, I want to take a stab at where I think things are headed and record it so that in 10-20 years I can come back and see how right I was.  And who knows…maybe someone in Cupertino will read this, like my ideas, and offer me a job…hey I can dream…

So stay tuned for my predictions on where technology will take us in the next 5, 10, and 20 years…

iPhone app

So they have an app for that...

"that" being, in this case, posting blogs

Maybe I'll post more often

Maybe it will just increase my typos.

We'll see.