The Future of Consumer Technology (5 years)

**Links in text are articles that I base info off of.  They are not promotional links put in there to harass you.**

The future of consumer technology is a hard thing to guess at.  All we can do is look for trends.  We can look back in time and see where we were and then extrapolate into the future.  Needless to say, it’s all guesswork.  Educated guesswork.  So throughout these posts I could insert “in my opinion” over and over again, or you could just read the post with that in mind.  So I will state things as if they were fact but everything below (unless cited from a source) is speculation on my part. 

That being said here’s where I predict we will be in 5 years.

The short term future of technology hinges on the cloud.  More specifically the average consumer’s ability to efficiently access that cloud.  Cloud is one of those terms that has been thrown around a lot recently and in order to ensure everyone is on the same page I’m going to take a moment to explain the cloud.  The cloud is, broken down simply, the internet.  More specifically it’s the space that is created on the internet where things can be stored and programs can be run.  While the internet might seem like some ethereal, anomalous gathering of data that just floats out there in “cyberspace” it is actually all stored somewhere in the world in a physical place (or rather multiple physical places).  When people refer to the cloud the are actually talking about massive warehouses full of servers that store data and make it available from anywhere in the world via the internet.  I won’t get into the pro’s and con’s of the cloud but, needless to say, the world is shifting more and more to cloud computing as the speed of internet access increases.  As we continue to see the speed of our internet increase it will become more and more practical for us to store programs and data in the cloud.  In the beginning of this year a study was done that compared internet speeds around the world.  While the US was in the top 25, it wasn’t even close to the top.  Japan holds that title with internet download speeds averaging at 61mbps.  To give you a comparison the average US speed was 4.8 mbps.  Compare a car going 5 mph with a car going 60 mph and you’ll see the difference.  Many people foresee gigabit internet speeds in the future.  It’s hard to say when, due to the economy and the massive amount of spending the US government is already dealing with, but we will get there, eventually.  I think in 5 years we, in the US, will see speeds closer to the mid 20’s.  There may be options for higher speeds but I think the average household can expect those speeds. 

Once we become more dependent on the cloud we’ll see a drop in the need for hard drives as everything is stored on the cloud.  We’ll see cell phone internet speeds close to 15-20 mbps and we’ll see the proliferation of “smart phones” with access to that internet.  I see in 5 years a possibility of desktops for home use starting to disappear.  We will no longer need the big towers to hold our processing power or storage.  We’ll start to see ways in which we can connect our cell phones to monitors and use the cell phone’s processing power to run the programs in the cloud (this will become more and more affordable and accessible in the 10-15 year range).  We’ll see a shift to tablets and small laptops to supplement our cell phones, which will fast become even more of an inseparable part of our lives.  We’ll be able to wirelessly pay for our groceries and other purchases by simply taping our cell phone against receivers at the point of sale.  For those who can afford it our homes will be able to be controlled completely through our cell phones, from unlocking the door (this exists now) to turning on the oven, A/C, lights etc.    We’ll see location based operations that will open your garage door automatically (update: (9/28) you can do this now too.) when you drive within 200 yards, or it will detect when you leave the house and adjust the energy usage accordingly.  All of this, of course, will be optional, costly, upgrades or apps and won’t be compulsory or cheap to begin with.

Once home internet speeds reach faster speeds we’ll see the death of cable TV.  Not because of Netflix or Hulu, but rather by companies like Time Warner (or a new upstart) who will simply change the method in which channels are distributed.  With this we’ll see social connectivity (good and bad) that will allow for targeted advertisements on TV similar to what you see on Facebook and other websites.   And with that scary thought I think I’ll wrap this up.  I may add more if I come up with things but this is long enough as it is.  Feel free to add input in the comments…